201021_Itinera Europea: Four Scenarios and their Plausibility
A Research Seminar by Prof. Adrienne Héritier organised in the framework of the Seminar Series of the European Governance and Politics Programme

Based on strategic interaction analysis, the chapter assesses the plausibility of the future paths of development of the European Union: a federal state, a differentiated and flexible union, covert integration, or disintegration. Systematically varying either the preferences of the main actors or the macro decision-making rules and external shocks/crises, the analysis comes to the conclusion that a differentiated and flexible union and covert integration are the most likely paths of development. The chapter ends by discussing some implications of the different scenarios and their desirability, such as citizens reactions to ‘covert integration’.
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