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Guesses | by Arenamontanus
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Office guesses at (A) a disaster killing 50%+ of humanity in the next century, (B) our reality turning out to be a simulation, (C) extinction within a century, and (D) artificial general intelligence before 2050.


This is based on earlier Aumann agreement experiments we did. Credences are free to update as we see each other's views, as well as get new evidence.

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Taken on June 11, 2014