# goldpricemodel 2013 projection

## gold price projection rolling forward the 52-week ROC (rate of change) sourced from hourly gold price data from www.fxhistoricaldata.com/download/XAUUSD?t=hourROC calculation for this model in image flic.kr/p/dvDHfMSilver: by projection of averaging 2.0x leverage in USD of silver vs gold & a lot of currencies tracking the same path long-term I'd estimate 2400/1750 squared x 34/oz silver = 63.94 / oz silver when gold hits 2400/oz USD as per the chart that being 2013 SeptemberA guide to historical silver vs gold acceleration ratios: flic.kr/p/b3wmPP 10 years of gold & silver price data in scatterplot with trend-lines overlayupdate: scatterplot image is not ready but I did analyze one & the ratio is 2.31. Meaning: this curve passes through the gold vs silver data with R-squared over 0.94,(gold/1274)^2.31 x 17 = silveror(silver/17) ^ (1 / 2.31) x 1274 = gold priceflic.kr/p/bNoznc pattern detected 2012 Apr 17, sorry it took so long to get around to price-mapping it. Math is visible, you can do it yourself. Just find the slope of ROC change per day from high to low, low to high, then make another slope into the future stopping at +50% ROC 52-weeks. From this you roll forward each day (or hour on hourly chart) to get the center-line ROC for the day, then look 52-weeks back to get the PRICE for the future-date. Repeat for 2 lines, 1 high 1 low, with the first calculated ROC & price being the centerline. Very straightforward. The output produced in a spreadsheet, put into a chart, looks like this flic.kr/p/dvDHfMHooray for manipulation! flic.kr/p/dPUjBt

• I have a silver projection too at about 62 an oz.
• (gold/1274)^2.31 x 17 = silver
or
(silver/17) ^ (1 / 2.31) x 1274 = gold price
now this brings a mapping of 2400 gold to 73.42 / oz silver
error margins: gold to silver +/- 55 cents / oz currently (data 2012 June to 2012 Nov 30, daily prices close), silver to gold +/- \$12/oz
• last 60 days
silver: \$34.35 , \$29.95 , ratio 0.871906841
gold: \$1,741.40 , \$1,655.90 , ratio 0.950901573, log(ratio/ratio) = 2.722682633x
Silver is acting like a 2.72x ETF on gold, USD prices
30.50 x (2400/1660)^2.72 = 83.1343 , 83.13 silver, 2400 gold
• flic.kr/p/dQai6D : updated gold-to-silver equation: 25 x (gold / 1522.48) to power 2.1740103 = silver
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