goldpricemodel 2013 projection

gold price projection rolling forward the 52-week ROC (rate of change) sourced from hourly gold price data from www.fxhistoricaldata.com/download/XAUUSD?t=hour

ROC calculation for this model in image flic.kr/p/dvDHfM

Silver: by projection of averaging 2.0x leverage in USD of silver vs gold & a lot of currencies tracking the same path long-term I'd estimate 2400/1750 squared x 34/oz silver = 63.94 / oz silver when gold hits 2400/oz USD as per the chart that being 2013 September

 

A guide to historical silver vs gold acceleration ratios: flic.kr/p/b3wmPP 10 years of gold & silver price data in scatterplot with trend-lines overlay

 

update: scatterplot image is not ready but I did analyze one & the ratio is 2.31. Meaning: this curve passes through the gold vs silver data with R-squared over 0.94,

(gold/1274)^2.31 x 17 = silver

or

(silver/17) ^ (1 / 2.31) x 1274 = gold price

 

flic.kr/p/bNoznc pattern detected 2012 Apr 17, sorry it took so long to get around to price-mapping it. Math is visible, you can do it yourself. Just find the slope of ROC change per day from high to low, low to high, then make another slope into the future stopping at +50% ROC 52-weeks. From this you roll forward each day (or hour on hourly chart) to get the center-line ROC for the day, then look 52-weeks back to get the PRICE for the future-date. Repeat for 2 lines, 1 high 1 low, with the first calculated ROC & price being the centerline. Very straightforward. The output produced in a spreadsheet, put into a chart, looks like this flic.kr/p/dvDHfM

 

Hooray for manipulation! flic.kr/p/dPUjBt

lizadfuel faved this
  • lizadfuel 3y

    I have a silver projection too at about 62 an oz.
  • goldpricemodel 3y

    (gold/1274)^2.31 x 17 = silver
    or
    (silver/17) ^ (1 / 2.31) x 1274 = gold price
    now this brings a mapping of 2400 gold to 73.42 / oz silver
    error margins: gold to silver +/- 55 cents / oz currently (data 2012 June to 2012 Nov 30, daily prices close), silver to gold +/- $12/oz
  • goldpricemodel 3y

    last 60 days
    silver: $34.35 , $29.95 , ratio 0.871906841
    gold: $1,741.40 , $1,655.90 , ratio 0.950901573, log(ratio/ratio) = 2.722682633x
    Silver is acting like a 2.72x ETF on gold, USD prices
    30.50 x (2400/1660)^2.72 = 83.1343 , 83.13 silver, 2400 gold
  • goldpricemodel 2y

    flic.kr/p/dQai6D : updated gold-to-silver equation: 25 x (gold / 1522.48) to power 2.1740103 = silver
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Uploaded on November 24, 2012
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