2012 06 18 277week roc 04

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    277 Week ROC gold price trend
    data:
    www.fxhistoricaldata.com/download/XAUUSD?t=hour
    www.fxhistoricaldata.com/download/XAUUSD?t=day
    www.fxhistoricaldata.com/download/XAGUSD?t=hour
    www.fxhistoricaldata.com/download/XAGUSD?t=day
    math:
    for each % gain plotted it is new_price / old_price = cell value
    convention to chart above: 260% is 2.60 factor not +260%
    Date & time conventions: data file ends each trading day 22:00 EST
    data file excludes trading holidays except if 1 holiday in 1 region does not stop gold trading in other regions

    1. ivars1 22 months ago | reply

      Where do You get rate of change-from some program or calculate yourself.If so, rate of change over what period dy/dx -- howe long is time period dx?

    2. goldpricemodel 22 months ago | reply

      I calculate rate of change myself but it is standard in many free chart web sites. It's a matter of picking "rate of change" or ROC and selecting the time period. If you don't have the data on the free web sites (too far back, too short a time period e.g. hours) you need to download data (links above). So for example if I have a price in cell A1 and a price in cell A278 and I compute B278 = A278 / A1 and I format this cell on the spreadsheet in % format this is the 277-week rate of change assuming each cell advances 1 week of gold or silver price (it does). For the hourly gold data this is more like 19,000 rows but the process is the same. I compute all the data then I roll it forward on the trend-line.

      I compute a lower trend-line and an upper trend-line. The middle is computed (to generate upper and lower) but only the upper (green) and lower (red) are printed to a JPG. The actual ROC is shown as the simple trend-channel. The PRICES are computed by REVERSING the equation.

      So once I know what the ROC trend-line equation is, I compute today_price x ROC_factor = future_price. The trend-lines (upper, lower) are the ROC_factor. The today_price is in each cell for "recent prices" from the data download and the "future_price" is literally a marked price (one low, one high) for the future, precisely 277-weeks ahead of the "old price".

      The 52-week model is not ready & I expect it will show higher year-end prices, meaning the 277-week trend-channel for the ROC will be "too old" and expire.

    3. ivars1 22 months ago | reply

      Thanks, this need a bit of time, I am stuck in work. If I have more questions, I will comment on.

    4. goldpricemodel 22 months ago | reply

      ok. Remember if the columns do not import properly that you may need to set it for a special data column (date) and DMY format to read it then reformat it for your use. do not combine the date + time columns for the import. Later on you can add 2 separate columns as long as they are both date-time format (one that is only days, one that is time only but really has 0 days added in yet). You just add both together to get a date + time total (e.g. 11/12/2012 + 20:15 in 2 columns makes the single date_time formatted value of both)

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