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Election 2012: Can the Democrats retake control of the House?
Congressman Steve Israel says a net gain of 25 seats – what Democrats
need to win back control of the House in Election 2012 – is 'in
range.' The key, he says, is independents.
By Linda Feldmann, Staff writer / February 28, 2012
Washington
Steve Israel isn’t ready to predict that the Democrats will retake
control of the House in 2012. But the New York congressman in charge
of his party’s House reelection effort promises it’s going to be
“razor-close.”
Start with the proposition that it’s been only 16 months since the
Democrats suffered the shellacking of 2010, when the Republicans
netted 63 seats, and that Congress’s popularity is at record low
levels. To win back control, the Democrats need a net gain of 25
seats. After three straight “wave” elections – in which one party
suffers a net loss of at least 20 seats – a fourth would be highly
unusual. It hasn’t happened in 60 years.
But in Congressman Israel’s view, that goal is “in range.” Speaking at
a press breakfast sponsored by the moderate Democratic think tank
Third Way, Israel laid out his rationale: Some polls show Democrats
leading Republicans in the “generic” ballot for Congress.
Redistricting has given the Democrats opportunities to pick up seats.
The party is recruiting some strong candidates. And the House
Democrats beat the House Republicans in election committee fundraising
last year.
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The key, says Israel, is independent voters.
“You want to know why we lost the House in 2010? We lost 9 million
independent voters,” says Israel, chairman of the Democratic
Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). “They were with us in 2006.
They were with us in 2008. They were frothing-at-the-mouth angry in
2010.”
Focus groups show that in 2010, Americans were voting against the
Democrats, not for the Republicans, Israel says. The Democrats’ job
now is to fill in the blanks in defining these newly elected
Republicans, many of whom embraced the tea party.
Nonpartisan analysts maintain that the Democrats still face a steep
climb in their effort to retake the House after just one term out of
power. True, the DCCC outraised its Republican counterpart, the
National Republican Campaign Committee, by $7 million in 2011. But
outside spending by Republican super PACs is expected to wipe out that
advantage.
On the congressional redistricting front, Israel sees pickups in
several states, including two to four seats in California, three or
four seats in Illinois, and seats in Texas, regardless of how the
final map looks there.
Still, redistricting will cost the Democrats elsewhere, as
Republican-controlled state legislatures redraw maps to favor GOP
House members. In addition, the Democrats are losing some of their
more conservative members to retirement. According to the Cook
Political Report, five seats being vacated by Democrats are favored to
go Republican. None of the open Republican seats are expected to go to
Democrats.
On his claim of strong recruiting, Israel mentions two names, Jose
Hernandez of California and Val Demings of Florida. Mr. Hernandez, who
is taking on freshman Rep. Jeff Denham (R), is a former NASA astronaut
and the son of Mexican immigrant migrant workers who didn’t learn
English until age 12. Ms. Demings, who is challenging freshman Rep.
Daniel Webster (R), is Orlando’s first female chief of police and also
African American. Expect to hear a lot about these two as the campaign
progresses.
Israel says that in recruiting, he looks for problem-solvers. And once
recruited, he’s telling his candidates to “run like a mayor.” In other
words, ideologues need not apply.
“If you knock on a door, and somebody says there’s a pothole outside,
and you say, that’s not my job, my job is to figure out what to do
about the European debt crisis, you will lose,” Israel says. “Get a
shovel, get some asphalt, fill the pothole.”
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