The demand for long-term care for older people will grow in line with the rise of the global population

Between now and 2050, the global population will rise by as much as it was in 1950. This rise is accompanied by two major trends. Firstly, global fertility has fallen from 5 children per woman in 1950 to 2.5 children in 2005 and is set to reach 2 children in 2050 (UN, 2005a). Secondly, global life expectancy has increased from 47 years in 1950-55 to 65 years in 2000-05 and is esti-mated to reach 75 years by 2050 (UN, 2005a). As a result, fewer children and kin will be available to care for the elderly and the smaller working age population will come under increasing pressure to provide care for both their children and parents.