With the impending release of Droid (pictured above) and Android 2.0 Donut, there has been a deluge of articles telling us once again why Apple will fail. The same tech media who poohed poohed the Apple Store and said the iPod was going to be a fad and said that the Mac was finished and that Apple should license Windows; this same tech media is now, predictably, saying that the iPhone is DOOMED. Joe Wilcox over at BetaNews, even inflated the whole iPhone killing controversy into a "Smartphone War."
A war? When did Apple start a war? I distinctly remember Steve Jobs saying he wanted 1 percent of the phone market. I don't remember any rhetoric about invading Poland. Do you?
Even among those gadget blogs that give Apple a fighting chance, like
( www.techcrunch.com/2009/10/26/the-problem-with-iphone-kil... ), the tech media seems to miss an important distinction about the iPhone.
The iPhone is a platform!
And when I say platform, I'm referring of course, to the iPod Touch. Techcrunch even went as far as to compare the iPhone and Android to monotheist and pagan religions. Apple of course, was painted as the monotheist God, while Android was a pagan. Not once did the writer mention the iPod Touch. Verizon's new Droid phone may very well do wonders in the smartphone market, it may even outsell all other phones for one quarter, but parents won't be buying a Droid for their kids at Christmas. Think about it. If you're a parent with 2.5 kids, especially kids in the preteen years, what else are you going to buy them?
Would you rather that your kids text and talk you into another mortgage or would you rather buy them something that works with the songs they already have on iTunes? What sane parents wants to be managing their kid's minutes every month? I'm not saying that some parents won't buy their kids phones, but the point here is that the iPhone itself can't be killed alone. To kill the iPhone, you must also kill the iPod Touch, iTunes, the App Store and any other product that Apple puts out with the same OS, like the 10 inch Tablet device that may or may not come out next year.
I think the tech media also misses a bigger point about Google. Google is giving Android away for FREE, which means that the only possible way they can make money with Android is through ads. This means that Google does much better having their services on as many devices as possible, including the iPhone. Ever wonder why Google gives the iPhone such great services as Google Search, Maps and Street View? Advertising! In fact, Google stands to make more money from the iPhone because it currently has more market share than Android.
The tech media suffers from the same delusions about Apple that have clouded their prognosticating skills for the last decade. They are still judging Apple by the Mac versus Windows saga that played out over twenty years ago. Yes, licensing did work out for Microsoft in the end, but the question here is will the same strategy work out with mobile devices? The two leading companies in the mobile space, Nokia and RIM, both have phones that are tightly integrated with proprietary operating systems while Windows Mobile foundered in the same space. Why should Android be any different?